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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread
VTI 342.05+0.3%Jan 15 4:00 PM EST
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To: Boca_PETE who wrote (5319)7/2/2010 1:28:41 AM
From: marc ultra1 Recommendation  Read Replies (2) of 10065
 
<Most recent Investor's Intelligence figures report 41.1% of advisors are BULLS and 33.3% are BEARS - I see no extremes here.

By the methodology of the Investor's Intelligence Survey I believe there there is a built in bias toward more net bulls. Getting a majority of net bears is infrequent. Also it tends not to have violent swings like other surveys. If you look at the methodology it's apparent why that is:

"If the Advisor has a list of stocks to buy now, they are bullish; if they say sell everything and raise cash
they are bearish; if they show a list of stocks to buy, but at lower prices, they are judged as “correction"

So basically you have to say sell everything and not recommend any stocks to make it into the bearish category.

With that, the fact is we've fallen precipitously from 75% net bulls on 5/5 down to 55% net bulls now. Also more sensitive surveys like Hulbert does where he actually looks how long or short the newsletter allocation is has had virtually a historically rapid reversal from extreme bullishness to extreme bearishness.

The total Put/Call ratio has been mostly over 1 for a while which is also consistent with extreme bearish sentiment.

While I don't closely follow the AAII survey I see it's at a little over 27% bulls and 42% bears. This is in a time when we haven't even been a bear market yet so I think bearish sentiment is extreme enough at the moment and I would certainly put that in as bullish for the market right now.
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