Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 301.88

-1.0%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Paul V. who wrote (10491)	11/7/1997 11:44:00 AM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) of 70976

Paul, 0.25, 0.18, 0.13, 0.08, each require a "complete" set of new tools. The move to 300mm will likely occur while leading edge companies are moving to 0.18 and the majority are moving to 0.25. Sam raised the term standard deviation, and Tito has been talking about the Y0-Y0/Stairs pattern of the stock price. Both of these can be applied to earnings during the up cycle. Companies that sell a large number of low price products to a large number of customers have smooth growth curves. This is NOT the semi-equips. We know from Morgan's $10B in 2002 where the earnings will be in this uptrend. We just don't know when Tito's YO-YO will head down because of 300mm transitions, SE Asia problems, DRAM price declines, etc. We do know that AMAT is walking the stairs toward $10B. Think positively! Volatility gives traders action and long termers chances to apply additional cash! Cary

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