Re: I want to be in gold when it goes straight up.
Timing is always hard. The politics are very different, now, so there is very limited relevance to the way the POG acts now, but we can look at what happened in '29 to '32.
The POG basically stayed at $20.65 from 1833 to 1930 (it was, of course, fixed) but when the economy dipped a second time in '31, people began dumping gold for things like food and shelter.
.
.
.
1928 - 20.66
1929 - 20.63
1930 - 20.65
1931 - 17.06
1932 - 20.69
1933 - 26.33
1934 - 34.69
1935 - 34.84
.
.
.
Basically stayed at the same price until 1970 (no surprise, the POG was fixed), then jumped to $612 by 1980.
So where are we, economically, on that curve?
If we have a double dip, there will probably be a pull back in the POG. Given that gold is now market priced, it may be a much bigger dip (amazing that the "fixed" price dropped - and worth carefully considering).
kitco.com
GDP was dropping steadily until 32/33. When GDP stabilized, the POG did too, but it's important to note that POG was fixed during this period. It was only a "market" price when POG collapsed in 1931 and after it was allowed to float in 1970:
GDP
1929 103.6
1930 91.2
1931 76.5
1932 58.7
1933 56.4
1934 66.0
1935 73.3
bea.gov |
