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Technology Stocks : Copytele - Another XEROX in future
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To: Ken G who wrote (1074)11/7/1997 12:36:00 PM
From: Brad Zelnick  Read Replies (1) of 1320
 
That market prat-fall yesterday was fortuitous for me. I was able to cover my short position in the 3's and establish an average long position under $4/share.

I've been doing some heavy calculations on the upshot of the Hang Seng problems. Its just the tip of an iceberg. Have you seen George Soros's recent moves? Buffett buying bonds!

The opportunity is this: we're seeing major nation-deflation. It's the whole sector, the whole region: an Asian nation-deflation. Copytele by dumb luck is right there with ramp up of a new product with large distribution contracts in place. They don't have to move a muscle. Just ride the wave. Suddenly their product becomes very cheap. The third world strategy for the near-term will sell at a fourth world price. While they begin the rollout of their multi-function telephony device, they will have bought another two years of flat panel development time. Since they are an American company, import quotas won't apply. Copytele starts being a very attractive speculation in the Flat Panel Display sector. Downside risk disappears at this price because with their Shanghai base of operation, should the panel take longer - their infrastructure is valuable to American companies wanting to manufacture cheaply and import without duty. In other words their set-up has franchise value in and of itself. (Remember as Graham-Dodd and value investors like Klarman teach everything has some value, the issue is price.) Copytele at this time, in this environment, at this price has potential value with minimal downside risk.

Take care,

Brad
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