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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index
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To: DebtBomb who wrote (258952)7/7/2010 10:49:56 AM
From: THRead Replies (1) of 306849
 
GSOW,

I'm struggling to develop a plan to play this confusion, and it is not just me that is confused, but the machines too.

I play against the machines, so I'm fxxxxx until they get their algos adjusted.

I've got a few simple plans bouncing in the soft and fluffy gray matter.

1. Wait for Euro/Dollar 1.31 and short the market to hell (assuming the algos get back in the dollar down/market up groove).

2. Sit in cash and wait for miners to become very attractive. I believe a major gold wacking in the works. The gold swaps tell me that there is major concern about gold and the commercial short position is large. Add in the rather illogical and insane selling of Dollars AND gold due to the Euro short unwind, and gold has some (unwarranted) headwinds. Plus I believe QE2 is coming and they need gold down to buffer what more QE will do to the POG price (we will suffer fools like Fisher telling us that the Fed is done, and yada yada, bullshit for months to come).

3. Keep collecting data and make a better plan.

GT
TH

EDIT: I still believe a major rally is in the works, but as another trader and I have discussed, the real question is, "do I hope there is a big rally so as to make my short entry easier". I have to be careful of wishful thinking potentially distorting reality.
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