Ariel: Okay, so now there are two batteries. Let's take them one at a time.
1. "PowerSlice LX+", aka my "Son of PowerSlice", aka "a rework of the battery originally designed for use with the HP laptop", aka "the battery for which there will be a big PR push and exciting demo just prior to (or at) COMDEX". If this battery really still weighs 3+ pounds and will last for only 30-35 cycles (a month or two at most for a "Road Warrior"), I will go on record saying there will be no market at all for it. Period. It doesn't matter if it can deliver 10-12 hours. It will simply be too heavy and too big to be useful for real travelers. If they give them away no one will show up at the booth.
2. The "OEM battery", the one being "shopped around" to OEMs. From what you say, this battery weighs 1.7 pounds, can deliver 8-10 hours (implying a capacity of 120-150 Wh), and has a cycle life of 50-75 cycles (about 2-3 months for the average "Road Warrior"). Unless it can fit inside a laptop (like a Duracell "DR36" or Motorola "ER36" - - - now adopted by over 40 OEMs), it is (from my perspective) also dead in the water. Simply stated, it's "out of range". What people want and need is something that is smaller, better, faster, cheaper. What you describe is not. It's marginally better, maybe, but not enough to get excited about. Maybe at $49, but not much more (and maybe much less).
Bottom line: I think AER is back to its old habit of introducing confusing product information in an attempt to get the stock price up so Lindseth and Bass can bail out once and for all. After all, we still haven't heard about who placed that big "buy order" 2 hours before the press release about the elimination of mercury (which everyone else did 5 years ago).
3. Notebook Power levels. As I understand it, display power will drop dramatically during the next few years, while CPU, hard drive, and modem requirements will stay about the same. Since the display takes up almost 1/2 of the 15 watt total now, this implies a 50% drop is possible, to 7.5 watts. Assuming lithium-ion and lithium-polymer get up to 100 Wh/lb by then, this is 13-14 hours of full-blast computing from a one pound battery that fits inside the computer. Or 26-28 hours if two internal batteries are used.
4. As I understand it, there are 2 major lithium battery candidates: Liquid electrolyte (LE), and solid polymer electrolyte (SPE). The main advantage of SPE is that it cannot leak (since the electrolyte is solid, and, as we all know, liquid batteries leak), AND it will cost only 2/3rds as much to make, since it can be made in a continuous process like photographic film. 5-10 years out they are looking at 225 Wh/kg and 400 Wh/l for both of these systems (implying 100 Wh, 7 to 13 hours from a 1 lb internal battery, measuring about 3/4" thick and 4" by 5"), and about $1.25/Wh for OEM costs (which is "free" to the consumer since it will come with the computer). Cycle life is in the 125-500 deep-discharge cycle range, or 6 months to 2 years for intensive users.
5. Bottom line: Check out Ultralife (ULBI), Valence (VLNC). That's where the action will be. Sure, they are overvalued, but what isn't these days. Of the two, ULBI is my pick: a big order from a cellphone OEM (something AER can never even get close to because of the size problem), and real sales of real products every day. It's a company!
And I think the stock could double or triple within a year...... |
