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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index
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To: RetiredNow who wrote (260549)7/13/2010 8:38:42 PM
From: neolibRead Replies (2) of 306849
 
We were never a true 14 trillion economy. That was just government borrowing from the future to prop up today's economy. The real sustainable economy looks a lot more like $11-12 trillion. The last year and a half was our government's attempt to delay the contraction. Now the contraction is having its way.


So in order to contract the almost 20% needed, what do you think GDP will be going forward: A few years of -5%/year, or more years at -2%/year or what? Currently we are growing in the +3% range, so you are suggesting a very big change.

FWIW, I don't think its going to happen. We might well dip towards recession, but it will be mild, and we might well have substandard growth for many years, but we are not going to contract by 20% over a few years.
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