Wowwwwwww..............this thread is dominated by negativity. We've got Dougjn, RLM, and Duncan Idaho, having us believe that COMS is going out of business. In the other corner we've got Mang and Dana Adams telling us to stay the course.
My two pennies: Big mergers take time to sort out, however COMS should be able to cut costs starting now over the next year to improve the bottom line. Also,the inventory picture for modems will improve as this was preexisting prior to the merger and COMS has a much more conservative position on inventories.
Second, look at the businesses COMS plays in and their market positions: These guys are #1 in the retail market, #1 int the small office market, #1 in the remote access market, and #2 in the enterprise market with the strongest product launch in history upcoming.
Third, if you've followed COMS over the years you should know that the company and stock is very resilient. COMS has had their nose bloodied before,but each time has always come back gaining share (most recently against INTC.
So, I think COMS is a good value here. Yeah it could go lower, but it is extremely well positioned to grow faster than the industry in all of its market segments. Remember, cost savings from the merger are just starting to be recognized and will improve over the next year, and inventories will continue to decline to historic COMS levels. Also, people will still buy modems, and right now 7 out of 10 are buying USR modems, which bodes well for a migration to cable/XDSL as well as central site RACs.
Usually people don't make big bucks on a stock unless they have 1)the smarts to do lots of research and 2) the guts to go against the tide. COMS just may present such an opportunity if you believe in the long term positioning of the company.
Bruce |
