AMAT and ALTR are 2 of 8 companies which make up about 95% of my equity portfolio. While all 8 are semi or semi-equips, I like the company diversification 8 offer. Typically, when I invest more money, I put it in the companies with the lowest dollar value at that time. Currently, AMAT is second lowest and ALTR, second highest. So, my current procedure doesn't support my moving cash from AMAT to ALTR.
We are in the early stages of recovery. NVLS forecast 95-110 increase in orders in 2010 over 2009 and an additional increase of 30% in 2011. ASML predicts that lithography tool shipments will trail demand for those tools through the end of 2011. Typically, semi-equips move further than semis in the early stages of recovery, which, again, doesn't support the move from AMAT to ALTR.
One strategy I am considering is a sale of my 4 semi-equips and use of some or all of the proceeds to buy more of the 4 semis. That is predicated on my belief that the 4 semis are definitely growth companies in a growing economy, while the semi-equips might not be. I will be watching closely to both examine my beliefs and act when it seems prudent. This strategy will move money from AMAT to ALTR, but will come later.
If you have a very large capital gain in AMAT you might look for the price hitting the upper Bollinger Band and high RSI, sell to lock in current capital gains rates, and buy back in 30 days later. |
