82% of companies reporting so far, have beat estimates, per CNBC.....82%. For semis and equips, it must be near 100%.
If that pattern continues, and the stocks go up, the bull market is intact. But if the SOX and SPX don't go up, this is a market topping signal.
...got to know when to hold 'em
know when to fold 'em
know when to walk away
know when to run...
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(Kenny Rogers on the Muppet Show)
I was very bullish in mid-June, when SPX looked like it was going to re-establish the 200dma as a support line. I might have spoken too soon:
SOX chart doesn't look as bearish as SPX. Earnings reports have been good everywhere, but especially among semis. The last 3 months, though, SOX has drifted in a 330-375 range. This might be a pause, after which the bull market resumes. However, the current and previous earnings reporting seasons should have been a reason for stocks to go higher, and it hasn't happened. By the end of next reporting season, if the SOX isn't setting new highs (above 405) I will seriously consider selling my AMAT and QCOM, and be entirely out of the sector. INTC and QCOM are already sold.
AMAT stopped going up a full 12 months ago, and has been in a tight 12-14$ range. For the last 6 months, AMAT has spent as much time below as above its 200dma. I've been patient, trading that range while continuing to hold a large position, but I'll probably be a big seller the next time it reaches 14$.
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