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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (38580)	7/23/2010 1:25:27 AM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (1) of 78672

Jurgis, I am still here buying and selling. I am wary. I agree with many that another disaster may be lurking because the root cause of the disaster has not been addressed - an incentive system that let's folks make bet's that make them rich if they are lucky and will blow up the institutions and the whole system if they are wrong. Things I am looking for: 1) China RE market blows up. 2) Double dip recession 3) Sovereign default fears spread to major economies (Japan, Italy, USA) 4) Inflation 5) All combination of the above I have been sinking about Talebs suggestion to make whacky bets that are unlikely to pay of but if they do, the payoff may be huge. it probably would be OK to buy LT leap deep out of the money puts to protect the portfolio from steep losses if this can be done cheaply enough or short some stocks that are vulnerable to black swan events. Besides that I do what I have been doing since 2008 - lot's of buying and selling and using the volatility to my advantage. I am also ready to sell off everything in a New Yorks minute, if I feel that one of the above event is coming (except for that cash will not be an option in the case of inflation).

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