Tom,
when Abby Cohen claimed the Asian problems are market events, not economic events, I was very surprised to see that she brushed aside the effect of a deteriating Asian economy would have on our own economy and corporate earnings. She is wrong. (or she needs to do so, so Goldman's clients can sell into the relief rally).
Look at today's WDC debacle, WDC said they couldn't know the exact damage they may suffer due to Futsitsu's dumping "at cost" - so they paint the worst scenario case they could think of.
ASEAN countries are Japan's largest trade partners, and when Japan cannot export as before, naturally it would try aggressively to sell more in U.S. and the low YEN certainly help their course.
I think Yardeni is more on target about the economy and market in his interview on CNBC today. He has long been bull before Ms Cohen became famous. Now he sees we have a 20% of chance to have a recession in 1998. He didn't see it before (not in 1998).
Any companies derive good portion of their profits from Asia, or compete against Asia will suffer, and not for a short period, for any economic problems take time to develop and take time to work out.
OJ, if you believe Money Managers will protect people's assets and park the money in money market, you are out of your mind. |
