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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: i-node who wrote (577812)7/24/2010 4:41:44 PM
From: tejek  Read Replies (2) of 1575338
 
And this is something to which Rs need to pay close attention.....even with the worst economy in 50 years, Obama's rating is not dropping any worse than other presidents at this stage of their presidency. Imagine what happens when the economy recovers.

The Obama Drop and the Obama Paradox

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Now, back to the paradox issue. (See here and here for discussions).

Obama has not enjoyed a sustained increase in approval rating in conjunction with the passage of his two landmark legislative packages. So if the hypothesis is that he should have, we can reject that hypothesis. In other words, Obama's triumphs, legislatively speaking, have not translated into triumphs defined as a sharp or even modest increase in his overall job approval ratings.

There are countervailing assumptions of course. Given that Americans remain quite negative about the U.S. economy, it might be expected that Obama’s approval rating would drop more than it has. Given the historical record, it might be expected that Obama’s rating would drop more than it has. And, keep in mind that Obama’s sixth quarter job approval rating is not out of range of other presidents in their sixth quarter. As seen above, Ford, Carter, Reagan, and Clinton were all lower in their sixth quarters. So the degree to which Obama's failure to see a rise in his approval ratings can be labeled a "paradox" certainly depends on one’s expectations.

pollingmatters.gallup.com
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