Rising volume was early sign of Bull death, but wasn't until the
next year:
On March 12, (1928) the volume of trading had reached
3,875,910 shares, an all-time high. By the end of the month such
a volume had become commonplace. On March 27, 4,790,270
shares were traded. Then on June 12, 5,052,790 shares changed
hands. The ticker also fell nearly two hours behind the market;
Radio (RCA) dropped 23 points, and a New York paper
began its accounts of the day's events, "Wall Street's bull market
collapsed yesterday with a detonation heard round the world."
The announcement of the death of the bull market was as
premature as any since that of the death of Mark Twain. In July
there was a small net gain, and in August a strong upsurge.
Thereafter not even the approach of the election caused
serious hesitation. People remained unperturbed when, on
September 17, Roger W. Babson told an audience in
Wellesley Massachusetts, that "if Smith should be elected
with a Democratic Congress we are almost certain to have
a resulting business depression in 1929." He also said that
"the election of Hoover and a Republican Congress should
result in continued prosperity in 1929," and it may have been
that the public knew it would be Hoover.
The Great Crash 1929 by John Kenneth Galbraith
page 15
I personally believe that our leaders don't have nearly as much
control on the economy or stock market as they would have us
believe. On the other hand, Carter cut his own throat, and
afterwards didn't even know how he had done it. He should
have stuck to carpentry. On the other hand, Volker did stop
the inflation.
-- Carl |
