RFMI's sale consists of two parts: pre-order (or booking) and turn-order (or in-Q-order). If end-OEM feel there are demands (which can be predicted), they will order according to their prediction and it will be RFMI's booking for the Q. If business is good, they will order more. Because RFMI generally can produce products within 6 weeks after receiving order, it will book and ship the order in the same Q. This part of order (turn-order) was about 30% of all the RFMI sale for the last 3 Qs.
Now, all of a sudden, this turn-order disppeared. And not only that, some of the pre-orders are being pushed away. Even worse, competition seems finally catch up (This shall not a surprise, just a matter of time.)
I used to think that RFMI is a small company with many different products. They have clock for high speed computing; Low power components for auto remote keyless entry; Filter and resonators for wireless telecom and virtual wire for industrial/office revolution. No company can be better prepared for the future than RFMI.
Now, clock's sale is almost none. The growth of auto segment looks like is hitting the wall. Filter and resonators is such a small propotion (about 7% of the revernue). Virtual wire is pretty much in the virtural world. Did I say that RFMI is a one product company?
RFMI is in a transition stage. Before the virtual wire catch up, I would not expect RFMI regain much of the loss. AND Can anyone predict the market acceptance of virtual wire products from RFMI?
Forget about the estimates. After all, that is why there is such a thing called earning disappointment.
At the moment, there is little earning visibilty for RFMI. The next earning will be a surprise. And the chances are great than 50% for a negative ones.
Wang |
