Will President Obama drag down Senate candidates?
By Chris Cillizza | July 26, 2010; 2:10 PM ET
Two years removed from an electoral wave created by President Barack Obama that swept Democrats into wide Congressional majorities, the chief executive's numbers have faltered badly in a number of contested states -- raising concerns that he could be a drag on Democratic candidates this fall.
A new independent poll in Missouri paints a grim picture for the president. Obama's job approval rating stood at just 34 percent with the overall electorate; among independents the numbers were even worse with just 27 percent approving of the job Obama is doing and 63 percent disapproving.
Go deeper into the poll and the numbers don't get any better. With the economy shaping up to be the dominant issue in the campaign across the country this fall, just one in three Missouri voters approved of Obama's handling of it; among independents a whopping 68 percent disapprove of how the president had handled the economy.
Despite those numbers, Rep. Roy Blunt (R) holds only a 48 percent to 42 percent lead over Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) in the race to replace retiring Sen. Kit Bond (R) this fall.
That trend -- poor Obama numbers coupled with a competitive head to head Senate race -- has played out in a series of polls in recent weeks.
To wit:
* Obama's approval at 41 percent (56 percent disapprove) in a new independent poll in Kentucky; ophthalmologist Rand Paul (R) takes 41 percent to state Attorney General Jack Conway's (D) 38 percent in the Senate race.
* Forty-five percent approval/49 percent disapproval for Obama in a late June Quinnipiac University Ohio poll (including just 40 percent approval among independents); Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) at 42 percent to 40 percent for former Rep. Rob Portman (R) in the Senate race.
* Forty-six percent approval/49 percent disapproval for Obama in a mid-July Q poll in Pennsylvania with disapproval among independents at 53 percent; Rep. Joe Sestak (D) and former Rep. Pat Toomey (R) tied at 43 percent in the Senate race.
Eric Schultz, spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, insisted that the disconnect between Obama's approval ratings and the head-to-head numbers is evidence that Republican attempts to make the election a referendum on President Obama won't succeed.
"As much as Republicans wish it wasn't true, their candidates are on the ballot too," said Schultz. "The national environment is relevant, but not determinative."
Perhaps.
But, remember that in very few of these races have the two candidates engaged in any meaningful way (read: television ads) -- a fact that makes it difficult to draw hard and fast conclusions about whether Obama's number will ultimately hurt Democrats in states like Missouri, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Nevada and Kentucky.
Missouri, forever a swing state, may give us an early indication of whether (and how much) Obama will drag down Democrats.
In a new ad, Blunt goes directly at Carnahan's decision to raise money with President Obama -- describing her as a "rubberstamp" for his agenda and quoting the chief executive saying "it would've already been done if I had Robin Carnahan there." (Obama was referring to the passage of financial regulatory reform.)
Here's the ad:
voices.washingtonpost.com
That commercial went on the Missouri airwaves July 20 and the Mason-Dixon poll came out of the field just one day later so its impact (if there is one) isn't reflected in the latest survey.
(Worth noting: While Carnahan raised money with Obama in Missouri earlier this month, she was out of town during a March presidential visit.)
Blunt's strategy, which almost certainly will be mimicked by other Republicans running in competitive Senate contests around the country, is borrowed from Democrats in 2006 who labeled virtually every Republican running for office as a rubberstamp for then President George W. Bush. (One important difference: Bush was far less popular nationally in 2006 than Obama is today.)
Will the Republican rubberstamp strategy work?
"Midterm elections are usually a referendum on the President," said one Democratic pollster granted anonymity to speak candidly. "But I think there are a host of other numbers that are more worrisome -- right direction, lack of economic optimism, the Democrats in Congress having poor numbers and the sharp rise in anti-incumbency."
Elections are far more complex than many people -- including the media (damn media!) -- typically assume and, as a result, it's impossible to quantitatively measure exactly what the Obama effect will be this fall.
But, numbers like the ones in Missouri have to be concerning for Democratic candidates who have to hope Obama's approval ratings improve between now and Nov. 2. Running with a light breeze in your face is one thing; running with a gale force wind blowing against you is quite another. |
