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Pastimes : The Philosophical Porch
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To: Investor2 who wrote (5822)7/28/2010 9:51:29 AM
From: Rarebird  Read Replies (1) of 26251
 
The chances of averting a severe economic downturn are almost nil:

The ECRI Weekly Leading Indicator is definitely forecasting a recession now. Its growth rate is now -10.5% and that rate of decline has never failed at successfully forecasting a recession. There's always room for things to be different this time, but the odds are heavily stacked against the economy avoiding a double-dip.

The Consumer Metrics Institute Weighted Composite Index (third chart down from the top of the page), which directly measures consumer demand on a daily basis, has been in decline for the last six months at an annualized rate of about -2% (second chart down). Notice that although the current contraction is much shallower than that seen in 2008, it has reached the same level as the prior contraction did about 7 weeks after it had begun. In terms of damage done, the area under the curves gives a good estimate of that. The current decline has done substantial damage to the economy and to jobs despite the shallower angle of descent.

consumerindexes.com
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