FSLR earnings preview:
2Q10 analyst estimates: rev. 541M$, EPS $1.60 (range $1.04-2.01) per WSJ
FY10 estimates: rev. 2.62B$, EPS $7.09 per WSJ
valuation: EPS 7.09 X PE 15 = $106. Using a PE of 20, and a 2011 EPS of $8, gives a valuation of $160. I'd consider anything above $160 overvalued, given all the uncertainties.
module manufacturing cost, in $/w:
0.84 2009
0.76 2010
0.68 2011
0.61 2012
0.55 2013
0.50 2014
2009 is actual; 2010-14 assumes 10%/year decrease. Since they cut manufacturing costs almost in half, from $1.59 to $0.84, in the 4-year period from 2005 to 2009, a 10%/y fall seems very doable.
This is the moving target their competitors have to match (adjusting for differences in solar efficiency).
Credit Suisse has a nice chart showing changes in efficiencies, for 5 solar companies, for the last 3 years. Basically, everyone shows modest improvement.
$350 = target price for FSLR, October 2008, per Credit Suisse. |
