Hi Patrick -
I tracked Judy down, and she seemed to be posting with you alot (that should be considered a compliment).
Have not looked pack at the posts which gave me a favorable view of your opinions (that may or may not be a compliment).
I have 4 years experience in the market, so obviously I have not been through a bear market (or serious correction). I guess I use a top-down fundamental approach. The overall market looked fine (ie, not about to implode) to me through june or july as I played the oil drilling sector. This sector has some great fundamental forces shoving their revenues, earnings and stock price higher.
Late this summer, I started to fear that the "oil drilling party" would be jeopardized by this damn irrational exuberance in the general market; I was selling covered calls during the summer with mixed results. Finally decided to just be long and not ying-yang around with playing the short term cycles. The Friday before "brown monday" (or however it is referenced), oil drilling stocks held up very well; the following monday, they got creamed like everyone else. I was about 90% long going into monday. After the nice rebound on tuesday and wednesday, I began to feel like I had a near death experience (read: Slow Learner). I had the overwheliming feeling there was "unfinished business" from monday's 550 drop. Just felt that there was more down than up side in the market, despite being 85% invested in a dream sector. By thursday of last week, I was 70% long, then 50%, then 40%, then 30%, ending up today at about 10% long with about 10% short.
Anyway, would love to hear your views of the market, and what data/processes are leading you to expect further declines in the market.
If you don't mind, we should chat here or any other thread, but the driller thread has historically had little chit chat, and I don't want to disturb the thread karma.
Good trading
Mike |
