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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum
GLD 368.31+0.6%Nov 7 4:00 PM EST
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To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (65049)8/4/2010 10:41:16 PM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (2) of 217643
 
just in in-tray, per GREED n fear

· The bullish catalyst this week has been the decision to delay the implementation of Basel III until 2018. GREED & fear’s view remains that investors should view the 1150 on the S&P500 as the top end of the trading range.

· The Treasury bond market has not sold off of late as much as equities have rallied. It is worth remembering that the last time the 10-year Treasury bond yield was below 3% in March 2009 the S&P500 was below 800 (see Figure 1).

· US headline CPI fell 0.1% MoM in June. This means that the CPI has now declined by an annualised 1.5% in the past three months (see Figure 2). If this trend of the past three months is extrapolated forward, US CPI year-on-year inflation will turn negative in October, down from 1.1% YoY in June.

· GREED & fear views the “European banks’ stress test” as primarily a public relations exercise given the inclusion of “funny money” such as deferred tax assets as “capital”, and given obvious fudges such as only counting sovereign bonds held in trading accounts. By contrast, the news on Basel III was a better reason to buy bank stocks for a trade.

· Unlike Western economies, India is not an economy where investors have to worry about whether the credit multiplier is working! GREED & fear also maintains the view that the investment cycle in India will continue to gather momentum during 2011.

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