KLIC 3Q10 results:
Quote of the week:
"There will be, soon or later, a next industry downturn, but we just don’t see it happening yet... ...you are trying to get me to call the top of the cycle. It was a good try, but we don't know. People have been trying to call the top of the cycle and use our data to call the top of the cycle since last summer. There will be a top of the cycle. There will be a roll-off in the cycle. We don't have any great crystal ball, any magic way to see it any better than anybody else. We clearly worry about it. We have been worrying about it for six months."
rev 221M$, on track for highest yearly sales since 2000.
gross margin 45%, at high end of 37-45% range
GAAP EPS $0.65; $1.15 for Q1-3 of 2010; for comparison, their best entire year since 2000 was $1.10 in 2004
LT debt down to 97M, cash 163M.
Shares up to 75M; was 61M in 3Q09.
guidance: "Our revenue guidance for the September quarter is in the $250 million to $260 million range. Like the June quarter, September revenue will, for the most part, be manufacturing limited, not order limited. Similar revenue December quarter." No EPS guidance; no guidance for full year 2011.
Scott Kulicke: "In the June quarter our operations team did a terrific job ramping up production in response to the unprecedented customer demand... ...Especially noteworthy were ball bonder shipments for LED applications, which almost doubled over the March quarter... ...We're also starting to see increasing demand from the memory segment. Lastly, the industry's transition to copper continues to be a strong driver of demand, and of our rising market share."
"Last month we commented that we had seen some volatility in our order book as one of our customers had pushed out some deliveries originally scheduled for the September quarter. I'm happy to report that that customer quickly reversed course and pulled some of those machines back into the quarter and that, as we predicted, we easily sold the rest of those delivery slots to other customers eager for capacity... ...no other pushouts..."
my comment:
LT: On the next downcycle, I might consider KLIC an investment, rather than a trading stock. They will enter the next downcycle with the best balance sheet in 10 years. They've got real LT growth prospects, from LED and copper.
ST: Buying near the 200dma, and selling on days like today, or on any 1-2$ upmove, looks good for a ST trade. Volume is increasing, making ST trading easier. The improving fundamentals haven't changed the extreme volatility of the stock, as seen by the order push-out panic, followed by today's gap-up.
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