SPX chart:
SPX soared 83%, from the 3/09 lows to the 4/10 highs. However, it's looking like the upward movement has stalled. The panicky dips based on fear of euro collapse, sovereign debt, stubbornly high unemployment, consumers who insist on increasing savings rather than spending, have repeatedly brought the SPX down to about 1040. I'm tentatively using that as the bottom of a horizontal channel the SPX may continue in, for the rest of the year.
1220, the April high, is (even more tentatively) the top of the channel. That's too narrow a range, and will probably be extended (hopefully upward).
But...it's also possible, the June and August highs, which also correspond to the 200dma, may be the top of the channel. That would be a very bearish result, creating a head-and-shoulders, and making the 200dma a resistance line. If SPX stalls here, and then sinks below the July lows, that would be very bearish.
disclosure: bought KLIC at $6.75 today, will buy more at $6.55, and expect it to hold its 200dma, then move up to $8.
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