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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 301.11+6.9%Jan 9 3:59 PM EST
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To: edward miller who wrote (1820)9/10/1996 12:22:00 PM
From: Joe Albinowski   of 70976
 
Ed: Sorry for sounding like I was pointing an accusing finger at you. I was not. This is just my general feeling toward making decisions based on the statements of others, especially analyst's.. To address the credibility issue, I ask all to go back to AMAT's earnings reports and conference call last summer and fall. If i'm not badly mistaken, they never saw the present downturn coming. I don't think they ever predicted what has happened from that point about a year ago. So my point is that listening to them should be taken for what it's worth. Their track record isn't exactly filled with bright spots recently. If you believe that the cycle is still in the early stages, then by all means, sell short ( if you want to put your money where your mouth is ) or simply sell your position. But the turn in the cycle will sneak up on everyone who is attempting to predict it and the only ones who will profit are the ones who are there at the time. It will be no more clear than the downturn was, believe me. If it were that easy, we wouldn't have a game on our hands. My main point is that to engage in the practice of predicting ( anything ) is a dangerous one and probably should be reserved for ego-maniacs and scared losers. Once again, this is not a shot at you, by any means, just one man's take on this most interesting of endeavors. Best of Luck, Joe
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