What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls
Saturday, August 07, 2010 Email to a Friend ShareThis.Advertisement
Money talks. This November, money’s likely to vote, too - with the economy front and center in most Americans’ minds.
The government released dismal figures on the employment front Friday, but it wasn’t unexpected to readers of Rasmussen Reports. We started the week by noting that the Rasmussen Employment Index had fallen five points in July to its lowest reading since January, a drop in the survey usually indicating a weak jobs report. For the 22nd month in a row, more workers say their companies are laying people off than hiring.
Consumer confidence fell for the third straight month, according to the Discover U.S. Spending Monitor for July, with more consumers rating current economic conditions as poor and fewer seeing improvement in the economy.
The Rasmussen Investor Index fell at the end of the week and is scarcely above where it had been at the start of the year.
In short, the economic picture isn’t a pretty one, and that usually spells trouble for the party in power. For the first time, too, since President Obama took office, voters see his policies as equally to blame with those of President George W. Bush for the country’s current economic problems.
Forty-four percent (44%) of voters also expect their taxes to increase under Obama.
Congress is now debating whether to continue the so-called Bush tax cuts that are scheduled to end December 31. Most voters favor extending them, but they’re more ambivalent about whether the cuts should be continued for wealthier taxpayers.
Yet despite all the bad economic news, 67% of Political Class voters think the United States is generally heading in the right direction these days. Things look a lot different to Mainstream Americans. Among these voters, 84% say the country has gotten off on the wrong track.
But that’s often case: The two seldom see eye-to-eye. Eighty-six percent (86%) of voters nationwide say there should be “limits on what the federal government can do,” a view overwhelming shared across virtually all partisan and demographic lines. The only exception is America’s Political Class. By a 54% to 43% margin, the Political Class believes the federal government should be allowed to do most anything.
One thing the government’s done recently despite majority opposition is impose a national health care plan on the country. Voter pessimism about that plan has reached an all-time high, but while 70% of Mainstream voters feel the bill is bad for the country, 80% of the Political Class disagree and see it as a good thing for America. Fifty-nine percent (59%) of all voters now favor repeal of the health care bill.
Fifty-four percent (54%) also oppose the requirement in the health care bill that every American must buy or obtain health insurance. Forty-three percent (43%) favor the requirement, which was on the losing end of a vote in Missouri Tuesday and is being challenged in court by a number of states.
Given the differences between Mainstream voters and the Political Class, perhaps it’s no surprise that Americans continue to view being a member of Congress as the least favorable of nine professions. Just 20% of voters believe that most members of Congress can be trusted with top secret national security information.
Speaking of Congress, check the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Balance of Power rankings to see how the nation’s Senate races are shaping up so far. Make sure you also read the explanation of how we determine those rankings and update them regularly.
Republican candidates hold an eight-point lead over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, August 1. That means 46% of Likely Voters would vote for their district's Republican congressional candidate, while 38% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent. Republicans have led on the ballot since June of last year.
But the number of Republicans in the United States slipped a point during July, while the number of unaffiliated voters gained a point. Overall, however, the numbers signal a high level of stability as there have been only modest shifts found throughout 2010.
The president’s job approval ratings improved slightly this week in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. But a look at the month-by-month figures from that survey give a better sense of how the president is doing overall.
The Obama administration has been wrestling in recent days with the illegal disclosure on the Internet of thousands of secret documents related to the war in Afghanistan, and 67% of voters believe the release of this kind of information hurts national security. Nearly half the nation’s voters (46%) believe the situation in Afghanistan will get worse in the next six months, the highest level of pessimism since January.
The week’s good news is that the environmental disaster in the Gulf of Mexico may not be nearly as bad as has been long thought. Support for offshore oil drilling now has tied its highest level since the Gulf oil leak began. Support for deepwater drilling like that which caused the incident in the Gulf is up to 55%.
Sixty-five percent (65%) of voters feel finding new sources of energy is more important now than reducing the amount of energy Americans now consume. That's the highest number measured since March of 2009.
A number of alternative energy ideas are being explored these days, and a sizable number of Americans say they would consider buying an electric car in the next 10 years. However, they’re less enthusiastic when told how much it will cost.
Makers of high-priced new electric cars are hoping that federal tax credits of up to $7,500 will ease the sticker shock for consumers, and 48% of Americans like the idea of tax credits for alternative energy cars. But support drops dramatically when adults are told that the tax credits could cost taxpayers up to $2 billion over the next 10 years.
In other surveys last week:
-- Thirty percent (30%) of voters now say the country is heading in the right direction. Confidence in the nation’s current course has ranged from 27% to 35% since last July.
-- Most Americans remain concerned about inappropriate content on television and radio and support continued regulation of the airwaves by the Federal Communications Commission.
-- One-in-three voters in Illinois (32%) believe impeached Governor Rod Blagojevich is about as ethical as most politicians.
-- Incumbent Republican John McCain runs nearly 20 points ahead of his likeliest Democratic challenger, former Tucson Vice Mayor Rodney Glassman, in Arizona’s race for the U.S. Senate.
-- The U.S. Senate race between Democratic incumbent Barbara Boxer and her Republican challenger Carly Fiorina remains close in California. Boxer leads 45% to 40%.
-- Mystery man Alvin Greene has been the subject of more media coverage this election cycle than any other candidate, but right now he trails incumbent Republican Jim DeMint by over 40 points in South Carolina’s U.S. Senate contest. Sixty percent (60%) of South Carolina Republicans think their party should be more like DeMint than the state’s other Republican senator, Lindsey Graham.
-- Once considered one of the most endangered Democratic incumbents in the Senate, Kirsten Gillibrand now continues to hold sizable leads over three potential Republican opponents in her bid for reelection in New York.
-- Ohio’s U.S. Senate race is a little tighter for now but remains generally where it's been for months. Republican Rob Portman leads his Democratic opponent, Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher, 44% to 40%.
-- North Carolina’s race for the U.S. Senate has grown a little closer this month, but Republican incumbent Richard Burr still holds a modest advantage over Democrat Elaine Marshall. North Carolina voters aren’t in too forgiving a mood when it comes to John Edwards, their one-term senator who just six years ago was the Democratic nominee for vice president.
-- Republican incumbent Tom Coburn continues to hold a commanding lead over Jim Rogers, the winner of Tuesday's Democratic Primary, in Oklahoma’s U.S. Senate race.
-- Delaware's U.S. Senate race is basically unchanged from last month, with Republican Mike Castle again earning less than 50% support. But, still, the longtime GOP congressman holds a 12-point lead over his Democratic opponent.
-- Republican Kristi Noem again passes the 50% mark of support this month against incumbent Democrat Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin in the race for South Dakota’s only House seat.
-- Republican Nikki Haley continues to hold a double-digit lead over Democratic State Senator Vincent Sheheen in South Carolina’s race for governor.
-- The California governor’s race between Democrat Jerry Brown and Republican Meg Whitman remains a nail-biter.
-- Little has changed in Pennsylvania's race for governor, with Republican State Attorney General Tom Corbett earning 50% support this month against Democrat Dan Onorato.
-- Tom Tancredo’s entrance into the Colorado governor’s race cuts substantially into support for the two Republican hopefuls and gives Democrat John Hickenlooper a double-digit lead. But overall support for Hickenlooper remains where it’s been for months.
-- Rick Scott remains the stronger of the two Republican hopefuls for governor of Florida against Democrat Alex Sink, with independent candidate "Bud" Chiles siphoning votes from both parties.
-- Republican John Kasich’s support has fallen to its lowest level to date as he challenges Democratic incumbent Ted Strickland in Ohio’s gubernatorial race. Kasich now earns 45% of the vote to Strickland’s 42%.
-- The first Rasmussen Reports post-primary poll in Kansas suggests the state is unlikely to break its 70-plus year streak of electing only Republicans to the U.S.Senate. Congressman Jerry Moran, the winner of Tuesday’s hotly contested GOP Primary, leads Democratic Primary winner Lisa Johnston by better than two-to-one. |
