re: stock prices vs. bookings:
Excellent charts, Gottfried. Message 26739407
Looks like, for all 3 stocks (and the pattern for other semi-equips won't be different), the stock price peaks 0-6 months before bookings peak. That is, bookings are a coincident or lagging indicator for peaks. Not very useful for timing.
As I've noted before, all the bookings peak happen around 1600M$ (year 2000 aside). It's a tight grouping of the data. Maybe we get a higher bookings peak this time, to compensate for the lower bookings trough we're rebounding off. Maybe. But, at these bookings levels, it is dangerous to be taking any new long positions, except for ST trades. From here on up in bookings (and stock prices), I see selling opportunities.
For troughs, it looks more useful. It looks to me, like a good buy signal, is when bookings have stopped going down for 3 consecutive months. That will be just past the trough in stock prices. You'll miss the absolute bottom, but still buy near the bottom, and get most of the upturn. Better than catching a falling knife. |
