America’s long goodbye to Iraq
By Eric S Margolis /Washington
Last week, President Barack Obama restated his vow to pull all US combat troops out of Iraq by August, 2010, and to withdraw remaining US troops by the end of 2011.
Has America’s goodbye to Iraq really begun?
One suspects it’s more a question of re-branding than retreat. The 50,000 US troops left in Iraq will supposedly “advise and assist” and perform “anti-terrorism” missions, and training.
To this old war correspondent, that sounds a lot like white officers leading native troops.
These “advisory” troops will likely consist of six combat brigades with heavy armour, backed by warplanes from US air bases in the Gulf. A US brigade withdrawn from Iraq may go to neighbouring Kuwait. But most of the rest will transfer to Afghanistan. There is no word yet about the 85,000 US-paid mercenaries (aka “contractors”) in Iraq.
In his impressive new book, Oil, writer Tom Bower notes America’s passion is “God, guns and gasoline”. Half of America’s daily consumption of 18mn barrels is imported. Interestingly, the nations once branded “rogue states” by Washington – Iraq, Iran and Libya – have 23% of the world’s known oil reserves.
Iraq’s oil reserves are an estimated 112bn barrels, the world’s second largest after Saudi Arabia, and huge reserves of natural gas. Oil-hungry India and China are eyeing Iraq.
America’s once mighty oil firms, the “seven sisters”, have been elbowed out of most of the world’s oil fields by nationalist governments. Saddam Hussain kicked foreign oil firms out of Iraq, and so sealed his fate. Big Oil moved back into Iraq behind invading US troops in 2003, and is taking over Iraq’s oil production and exporting.
It’s unlikely the US will cut Iraq loose. Washington seems to be following the same control model set up in the 1920’s by the British Empire to secure Mesopotamia’s oil. Namely: install a puppet ruler, create a native army to protect him, leave some British troops and strong RAF units in desert bases ready to bomb any miscreants who disturbed the Pax Brittanica – and keep cheap oil flowing.
Washington is buildings a $740bn new embassy in Baghdad for 800 personnel, as well as giant new fortified embassies in Kabul and Islamabad, Pakistan (cost $1bn) that may hold 1,000 “diplomats”.
The US hopes the Shia Maliki government it installed in Baghdad will keep a lid on Iraq while allowing autonomous Kurdistan to remain a Kuwait-like US protectorate. But given Iraq’s fractured history, this seems unlikely.
American “liberation” of Iraq left it politically, economically, and socially shattered. Republicans here crow about victory in Iraq thanks to the famous “surge” of troops. But their claim hides the grim truth. Reputable studies estimate Iraq’s death toll at hundreds of thousands to 1mn, not counting claims by UN observers that 500,000 Iraqi children died from disease as a result of the US-led embargo before 2003.
More than 4mn Sunni Iraqis remain refugees, half abroad, victims of Shia ethnic cleansing. Iraq is still a ruin.
“They create a desert, and call it peace,” as Tacitus memorably said of Rome’s solution for Carthage.
If all US troops are removed, the Maliki regime is unlikely to last very long. An Iraqi nationalist regime would re-nationalise oil, rearm, rebuild the ruined nation and rejoin the Arab confrontation against Israel. Or, Iran would end up dominating Iraq. It’s unlikely Washington would accept either outcome.
Iraqi resistance to foreign occupation has abated as the pullout date nears. US casualties have fallen sharply because US troops are being kept on their bases. But this could quickly change.
The highest-ranking surviving Baath Party leader, Izzat Ibrahim al-Duri, just declared a new push against the occupiers and their Shia allies.
The outlook for Iraq is probably more violence and turmoil. US troops may have to remain to protect America’s oil companies and prevent Iraq from disintegrating.
The excuse, of course, will be “fighting terrorism”, but the real reason, as in Afghanistan, will be oil.
Unless everything goes according to the Obama administration’s current plans for Iraq, the increasingly embattled president will probably find himself stuck in two increasingly unpopular wars.
Invading Iraq was easy. Getting out could prove extremely difficult. If the pullout falters, Republicans will have a field day slicing and dicing increasingly unpopular President Obama.
gulf-times.com
Iraq's oil deals, signed and still to come
af.reuters.com |
