Beachbumm >>"Some people are now wondering if they need Microsoft at all...."
You got it right, this is also why MSFT cann't stop java, of course they could spread FUD and cause some damages, MSFT has been done these for past two years, but what's the results? the java developers incressed to 700,000 from 200,000 in 10 months(begining of this year), more important all these happened still based on java poor performance(altough it is not very bad now). We would not see this problem next year, what will happen then? the java wagon will be too crowd. From the KeyLabs, the official certification entity for Sun's 100% Pure program, reports some 80 products have already been certified since June and 200 more have registered. These pure Java waves run the gamut of development tools, from database access middleware to virtual reality viewers. Considing JDK1.1 only released on Feb. 1997, this is a stunning speed of java marching on. One pretty sured thing is that nobody called MSFT for technical support and MSFT could not get a penny from these java products. The price of MSFT's share is based on the image of their monoply, there is big hole on their wall now. In one or two years, there will be thousands of java products on the market, these will make java chips very practical, we will see $500 JavaPc or JavaNC(with JavaCPU inside) on our desk( too bad for Intel and MSFT), there will be tons of money on this market, of course java can scale far beyond only on this market. It would be no suprise to see SUNW's shares selling on the level of PE ratio around 40 times.
Cheers Gordon Shen |