SPWRA 2Q10 results:
-0.06 EPS GAAP; +0.15 non-GAAP
23% gross margin GAAP
26% gross margin non-GAAP (I can't recall anyone else reporting non-GAAP gross margins. Next, they'll be reporting non-GAAP revenue, and non-GAAP stock prices.)
994M$ LT debt, plus "liabilities of discontinued operations" 166M$.
From the conference call: "SunPower had $737 million in cash and investments on our balance sheet." (But 383M$ in cash and equivalents is the real number, since the rest is restricted cash. Among the big solars, only LDK has a worse balance sheet.)
...strong demand in all geographies and market segments. We were sold out in Q2, and are fully allocated for the balance of 2010. We’re also seeing strong bookings going into 2011...our Q1 2011 bookings are at the best levels in two years.
Guidance:
0.25-0.55 GAAP EPS 2010
non-GAAP EPS $1.35-1.65, which excludes failed investments
sales 2010 2-2.25B$
gross margin GAAP 2010 18-20% (non-GAAP 20-22%)
Looking to Q4 2010, when compared to a conventional (c-Si) 14% panel, we expect our efficiency adjusted cost per watt at the panel level to be $1.36 per watt, and our Q4 2011 cost per watt will be $1.08. (my comment: 2Q10 manufacturing costs were not given. Instead, they gave hopeful "adjusted" predictions for the future.)
...the industry has been in allocation. That is, all of this supply was allocated by the manufacturers, and it was the sellers market. We don’t see that continuing over the long-term however. In particular, we see new manufacturing capacity that is starting to catch up to demand. As early as next year, we’ll start to see a transition to a buyers market.
investors.sunpowercorp.com
seekingalpha.com
PE = 31 = 12.39/0.40, using midpoint of GAAP 2010 EPS. Way too high.
Manufacturing cost/watt 4Q09:
$1.91 actual
$1.47 "Efficiency Adjusted" versus c-Si 14% panels
$1.01 "Efficiency Adjusted" versus Thin film 11% panels
Even if I accept their "efficiency adjustment", they are still behind where FSLR, TSL, and YGE were at end-2009. And the big Chinese solars are producing at 17-18%, not 14% efficiency.
That comment about "transition to a buyers market" is ominous. |
