Unemployment in the individual congressional districts "is the leading factor in determining the November elections," says Mark Gersh, one of the Democrats' top voting analysts. "The hope of the administration is it's trending down when the elections are held, but they're running out of time."
According to the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC poll, conducted this month, only 34% of poll respondents think the economy will get better in 2011—13 percentage points less than last September.
The fear in Michigan is palpable. The state's Democratic Lt. Gov. John Cherry isn't eligible to seek election again, having served two terms. He thought about running for governor, but decided he couldn't overcome a potential voter backlash on the economy. "I happen to believe that is the biggest political driver in this upcoming election," he says. In Michigan, he argues, voters' concern over unemployment isn't a temporary situation, but the result of a "fundamental economic shift."
The result is an environment "much like 1982," says Republican pollster Bill McInturff, when a deep recession and disenchantment with President Ronald Reagan led Republicans to lose many of the House seats they won two years earlier. In 1982, voters listed unemployment and the economy as one of their biggest concerns. "We're seeing the exact same kind of numbers today," he says.
In a bid to change perceptions, the White House has embarked on a summer-long project to highlight jobs it says were created by the stimulus act, dubbed "Recovery Summer." The campaign includes visits by the president and others to sites around the country, including nearby Midland, Mich. |
