Shorting SPY for fun and profit. Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Shorting SPY for fun and profit.

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To: Berney who wrote (59)	11/8/1997 9:37:00 PM
From: studdog	Read Replies (1) of 346

Berney, Take a look at the graph in the link Bonnie Bear provided above. The model is pretty good. I think the reason I have chosen to go short (actually pretty much flat)is as much a " gut feeling" as anything else. I do think earnings are going to be revised downward. This will reduce the numerator in the model. I also expect the 10 year bond to come down too, decreasing the numerator. Basically, deflationary forces negating inflationary forces. This would suggest a flat market, but given the overvaluation I believe there will be a downward bias. Making money I think will be hard, with minefields everwhere (look at the charts of CS, WDC, APM, HCIA, to name a few).

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