Big Buck, Tito, Cary and Kumar, Thanks for the critical imput. It appears that you collectively think, if I am interpreting you correctly, that the leaders of the fabs will want to be to the lower levels of 0.18, or lower by 2000.
My question is will the fabs milk the equipment and tools for all they can get before being forced to go to the smaller sizes? What will force them to go to the smaller size especially with the production of the sub $1000 computers? What timeline can we see in this transition process?
Am I correct to assume that we will see the leading fabs using the 200 (8) wafer through Dec. 1998 while reducing and making the retooling which is necessay to reduce the size of 0.25 as Cary indicated. Then, in 1999 begin to move to new equipment and/or tools and transition to the 300 (12) or even the 16 wafer while reducing to the sub 0.25, 0.18 and lower? How will this play out on the semi's and amat's BTB? Where can we project that we will see the slowdown? What will the fabs, due to monitary problems in the Pacific rim, Japan, United Kingdom, and Latin America, do to minimize the impact on their company and maintain their eps?
In looking at the BTB data that Gottfried graphically put together and comparing them with the past average and high I can see difficulty in maintain in 1998 the # equal to of greater than the '97 numbers in April, May, June, July, Aug and Sept, etc. IMO, Wall street will see these same numbers and sell in March and or Ist half of April, 1998, but could wait until the April BTB numbers come out in May. The only thing I can comprehend that would change this senerio is a tremendeous transition of the Fabs which would propel/force then to make the transition. What are your reactions to this these assumptions?
Thanks.
Paul V. |
