This is my first posting although I have been monitoring this thread and others for many months. My opinion, we are in a deflationary period worldwide. Not yet evident in North America, but definitely so in other parts of the world (Asia). There are some obvious signs here , some of which you all, including Bobby Yellin, have enumerated. The POG is a strong indicator as well as others. We are all expecting a downward correction in the NYSE. What can be more deflationary? Standards of living are dropping, government services are being reduced (like pensions, welfare etc.) wages are not keeping up to costs etc. There is however some confusion, as inflationary indicators are also present, but these will fall in time.
The prognosis for gold in a depression is not particulatly good, but then, hardly any investment is. I don't expect a repeat of the 1930's scenario, as we are in a one world economy now. But how governments will react to stimulate the economies and stabilize curriencies is open to speculation. There are many theories about international conspiracies and Fed. Reserve and Central Bank collusion controlling currencies and gold. Occasionally, one can get a glimpse of the big picture, and from time to time, ever so briefly, try to make some judgment based on these small revelations.
The question of inflation vs. deflatin is crucial to the future of gold, and I invite all your reasoned comments etc.
Phil, (seeking the truth) |
