PV,
By-and-large I would say your interpretations/assessments
are fairly correct. Dave Dhillon and I agree that 8"
fabs will be around for quite a while longer than 2000
since fabs will use engineering design changes to improve
the equipment performance as far as yeilds and device
shrinks. It is conceivable that a 200mm fab could attain
0.18uM device geometries with some strategic investment
in new, leading edge, equipment by replacing equipment
that can't "meet the mission", this would insure that
they are maximizing the performance capabilities in order
to compete in the chip market. This does two things
1. minimizes the cost of having to build new fabs and
equip them.
2. maximizes the "bang for the buck" on equipment that
they already have and are supporting with spare parts,
training, consumable parts, and engineering experience.
This allows for full depreciation of the equipment which
means they are producing wafers cheaper than they could
with new investment, in other words, they are producing
wafers free of new/additional overhead costs. This is
equivalent to driving a car that is paid off, you get
all the benefits of driving without a car payment, you
just need to add gas and maintain the car until it
isn't worth it anymore, during which time you can save
for a new car and pay cash from the savings.
Just my opinion,
BB |
