don't wanna flog a dead horse but your statement ... "having said that I have a long/hedged position in AMAT and looking for lower price to add".... shows how useful a little knowledge about a persons motivation is. because now i understand that while you are a long term bull, at this moment you are a bear as you are hoping for a decline in price so that you might add to your position at a low price. I don't trade like that. I find it too confusing. If I think the price is going down I sell everything to buy back more cheaply. I don't worry about the effect of taxes as if I make good money I'm happy to pay them - somebody has to pay to educate kids, mend roads, protect the enviroment etc. Right now I'm an amat bull, as intc has bottomed out and for now dispoven the SEA disaster scenario, amat's earning will be steller IMHO and they're getting closer and the apple rubish tomorrow will add some hype. I think that amat will trade around its all time high on the 21st because the story that took it there will have been confirmed.
On the subject of future competition to amat. to me its real simple, as long as gross profit margins stay healthy, the cometition will come. my favorate scenario is consolidation around LRCX with additional capital coming from a major overseas player, but it could happen in maney other ways. while I do on the whole buy your argument that fabs won't buy tools from a toolmaker owned by a cometitor fab, because it is historically corect in this industry, I would point out that as the industry matures these cross relationships become inevitable, as they have in the auto, media and engineering industries.
by the way I never pretend that these are expert opinions.. they are just mine, and sometimes they've fed me when nothing else would. |
