Style,
How about we look at the p.e. for the networkers, based
on past earnings. Does ASND appear overpriced on
this measure? Not to me.
I'm listing what I can here. Please, anyone who can correct
the numbers or fill in the blanks, please do so!
Estimates for FY97 for ASND are about 1.08 and
ASND is now trading at 24 1/8, hence its
p.e. of 22. If ASND has any increase in earnings in
1998 (and they are projecting about 33% increase in
revenue), then the p.e. number will decrease. Analysts
now project 1998 earnings of 1.27 (a p.e. of 19).
STOCK P.E.
CS 18
ASND 22 (based on 4Q estimates)
NT 32
COMS 33
XYLN 36
TLAB 40
CSCO 48
NN 49
FORE 62
LU 99
NETG 300
XIRC ?
BAY ?
SHVA ?
If ASND were to fall to 17, as some on this thread have
pronounced, its p.e. based on 1997 sales would be 15.7.
Nike, with revenue growth that may top 10% (versus at
least 33% for ASND) has a p.e. of 17.3.
In reality, you could double ASND's stock price from here
and still have a p.e. in line with the network sector.
Furthermore, if ASND were not to "save" some backlog for
next year, according to the new "conservative" plan --
which in my opinion is an effort to limit the stock price
before a merger is announced -- then its 1997 earnings
could certainly be more than are being projected, further
strengthening the p.e. ratio. (Maverick previously has
noted an order backlog of some $300MM)
Gary Korn |
