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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna
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To: Tommaso who wrote (9359)11/9/1997 12:08:00 AM
From: Orhan Birol  Read Replies (2) of 94695
 
Tommaso,
If this fast-track legislation does not pass the house this weekend
it may end up to be last nail to the coffin of this great bull market.
The market having already broken down, I think will not take another percieved assult on free trade.
The first break on 10/17 ended the minute CNBC announced, and rushed to the screen a couple of Japanese trade-negotiators with their US counterparts announcing that a settlement was on the way with the Japanese shipping companies.
The instability in the currency markets is not a big help to international trade as it is, the blockage of this legislation may start a snowball effect in the far east tomorrow night.
If you remmember my post of a month ago or so, I stated that this market will not crash because of higher interest rates, possibly because of a fear of recession and deflation but most probably because of an unpredictible event.
I now think that event, will be the percieved threat to international trade brought about by the weakness of other currencies, specially our great trading partners' in Asia. AND FINALLY THE BLOCKAGE OF THE FAST-TRACK.
We all remmember the blame Baker got with the statements he made on the dollar before the crash, and the blame the protectionists got after the great crash!
Big Kahuna! Or beginning of a long bear market! I will take the first anytime.
Orhan
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