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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum
GLD 368.31+0.6%Nov 7 4:00 PM EST
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To: John who wrote (65676)8/23/2010 1:45:32 PM
From: energyplay2 Recommendations  Read Replies (1) of 217639
 
The problem with the long term doomsters like Prechter is this:

They make straight line projects that show X driving off a cliff in Y years.

The reality is there is some guidance of the X car, some people are driving, just not very well. The drivers can usually avoid an obvious cliff a few years out. The drivers have a hard time with potholes in the road.
But potholes don't wreck the car, just bounce it hard.

The doomsters assume that no one is driving and/or no one can control the wheel.

Some examples:

1) Look at concerns over SAT college admission scores back in the 1980s. They were turned around, and headed back up.
An education is harder to fix than anything else.

2) Ozone hole from fluorocarbons - FCs now reduced

3)US debt as % of GDP at the end of the Reagan Administration - reduced later in Clinton administration.

4) Air pollution problems of the 1970s, when you could taste Los Angeles air - massively reduced.

5) Remember this ? Japan was going to conquer the world and control all manufacturing and finance.

6) And sometimes their prophecies are self canceling : Ed Yardeni promoted Y2K hard enough, that most of it was fixed, so the chaos did not happen.

******

So I expect that real doom will come from either a lack of political will for many years or something moving fast, like SARS, bird flu, or a major war.

The world will muddle through.
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