The Residential Real Estate Crash Index Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index

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To: Giordano Bruno who wrote (270620)	8/23/2010 6:22:10 PM
From: Broken_Clock	Read Replies (3) of 306849

CR Note: This is from economist Tom Lawler. Given the various state/local MLS sales reports available for July, it seems INCREDIBLY likely that existing home sales last month were down a boatload from June’s pace. Every local realtor report I’ve seen showed a drop in sales from a year ago, with most showing YOY sales declines over 20%, and some reporting sales declines of over 40% from a year ago. (See last page for “raw” data) Yet amazingly the “consensus” forecast for existing home sales in July calls for a SAAR of 4.65-4.66 million, which would be down just 9.3-9.5% from last July’s seasonally adjusted pace. Of course, since this July had one fewer business day than last July, that would imply a larger YOY decline in unadjusted sales, but only to about 10.5-10.7%. With so many state and/or local MLS publicly reporting YOY sales declines massively higher than that, how can the “consensus” be as high as it is? calculatedriskblog.com

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