Ken,
That gray area, if it even exists, can get trampled in the panic so quickly that I just assume it never exists -- look at what happened to WDC on Fri. Straight up management, said that the 2Q earnings would be at least in the 20 to 30 cent range (verses projected of 83) and the stock tanks 6 5/8 to 23 5/8. Now I don't short, but I will bottom feed -- although DDs may have not bottomed yet (QTMN was down big time also, SEG was off a little, I went with WDC because I have installed their DDs in two different computers, the buy what you use philosophy).
I suppose the one thing I forgot from the last post was that I like to sleep at night also, so I need to feel comfortable with what I'm doing. Look at "F.I.A.S.C.O. Blood in the Water on Wall Street" by Frank Partnoy. FIASCO is short for Fixed Income Annual Sporting Clays Outing, deals with how Morgan Stanley rigged the derivatives market. When I worked in NYC, I used to play cards with some on the Wall Streeters on the New Haven Line out of Grand Central. There were several bridge groups that I would (read could) not play with, well I could, I just don't like to lose $10-$15 on a short train ride every night. So now I stick with 'safe' plays, CPQ, HWP, INTC, MSFT and WDC (broker thinks I building my own 'paper computer'), several 'safe' mutuals (MCBAX, MCLOX, MCSPX, RCVBX) and a couple of wilder ones in the after tax area (TRBCX, RPFGX, SMLCX). I do sort of miss my COPY/CTSX/WIND days sometimes.
Regards,
Rich |
