S A P - too expansive?
Thesis: "SAP is a good stock, but meanwhile it is too expansive" ...?
I think everyone has these thoughts, if thinking about SAP-stocks.
But in the last years this thesis has not proved right.
Even if you were 'unlucky' by buying in Okt. 96 before they announced
"only 33% growth in Q3/96" the investmend was nearly doubled until now.
SAP had more than 40% average growth in the last 25 years.
Since SAP is a traded stock the price has climbed 4137 %
from DM 11,67
to DM 500,00
Analyst Heinz Steffen of 'Dresdner Kleinwort Benson' tried to predict the long term development.
For the year 2006 he assume a revenue of DM 50 Bil. and a result per stock of DM 97,77.
That means more than 10 times of today figures.
I asked for expectations in the german internet for the stock price in 6/97 and then 12/97.
Again it seams as if all expectations are beated by the real stock price.
I think most expectations came from optimists.
As long as the average Market-expectation is below the real development the trend will be positiv
Thesis: "A SAP-E/P (earning-price-ratio) of 40 is to high"
Antithesis: "E/P = growth ratio in percent"
In the german newsletter "B”rse-Online" actual statments of Dietmar Hopp (CEO) are made public.
He confirmed a 'growth' of 50% for 1997. This is quiet more than 25-30% announced in early 1997.
A positive surprise at about 60% growth (result) is my statement at the Basis of Q1-Q3/97.
A few month ago I predicted more than 70% for Q3/97; the real result grew at 86%.
For the next Year Mr. Hopp annnounced again less then 50% 'growth'.
But for the 'Perspektive 1998' he anounced, that the EURO and Y2000
will have an additional impact for the business and that 1998 will be a 'Good Year for SAP'.
Additional potential come from the cooperation with Intel in the field of Internet-solutions
and the great number of good co-operations with other companys.
My E/P for SAP in 1998 is 60.
SAP allready announced the share buyback as soon as possible.
biz.yahoo.com
sap-ag.de
"Buying back shares would also help SAP stabilise their share in times of turbulence.
Last mounth SAP said it planned to list shares in the U.S in the third quater of 1998, slightly sooner than previously expected. It expected to offer shares to its U.S. employees. Buying back shares would make it easier for a company like SAP to reward employees with shares or stock options.
Employee stock plans play an important role in luring and keeping highly skilled employees, especialy in the United States where such plans are common."
The growing business and the U.S. listing will result in synergy for stock price and reputation.
The growing number of mails here is a good sign.
1998 we will start to talk about PER for 1999.
I predict DM 20,4 as result per stock for 1999.
With a P/E = 60 SAP may strike DM 1224,00 in 1998.
My Antithesis is: "The price for SAP-stocks will climb over DM 1000,-- in 1998"
This may even be possible in Q3/98 (U.S.-listing).
I don't know how SAP will get the number of stocks for the US-market.
But anyway I emotionaly prefer the cheaper 'SAP ordinary shares' over the 'SAP prefenence shares'. They are not in the DAX-index but have the 'right to vote'.
regards,
Heinz
PS: Just my 2 Cents and 'Good Luck'. |
