Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT)

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3:59 PM EST

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To: etchmeister who wrote (24485)	8/25/2010 12:07:24 AM
From: etchmeister	of 25522

There does not seem to be a "clear" relationship between $ capex spent and incremental capacity additions; there are periods were Capex is spent but actually wafer capacity decreased - conclusion: excess capacity is a function of too much capacity installed but the relationsship between wafer capacity and capex $ is not linear at all. Any analyst worth his/her money should look at actual capacity (SICAS) and put $ capex into perspective in order to decide whether the industry is overspending relative to chip sales - but analysts look at $ while having no clue about how much capacity is actually added. Q3 07 4924 24.8 Q4 07 4221 29 Q1 08 3933 45.7 Q2 08 3808 31.3 Q3 08 3068 - 1.8 Q4 08 2349 - 18.9 Q1 09 1217 - 7 Q2 09 1765 28.5 Q3 09 2287 16.7 Q4 09 3252 12.4 Q1 10 4303 27.4 Q3 07 322.7 Q4 07 347.5 Q1 08 376.5 Q2 08 422.2 Q3 08 453.5 (96.4%) Q4 08 451.7 Q1 09 432.8 Q2 09 425.8 Q3 09 454.3 Q4 09 471 Q1 10 483.4 Q2 10 510.8

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