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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 314.52

-0.6%

Dec 11 4:00 PM EST

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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (49109)	8/25/2010 7:38:32 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (2) of 95572

Hi Don, This is an over dramatization of a natural fall off from the 8500 government credit. I HAVE A FRIEND WHO IS MOVING FROM dALLAS TO hOUSTON. HE LISTED HIS HOME AFTER THE CREDIT HAD EXPIRED. HIS REALTOR TOLD HIM THE CREDIT MOVED SALES FORWARD AND IT ALSO PROPPED UP THE SALES PRICE BY THE 8500 CREDIT. Unlike cash for clunkers,the 8500 did pull sles from the future. At the end of cash for clunkers sales did drop off a bit. The biggest benefit from the government program was a wind down of inventory. I'm not sure we will be able to say that about the government real estate credit. Auto's are financed for 60 months and the crisis has aged for 36 months. Real estate is financed for 30 years and the 3 years of slow down is most likely resolving more bad SITUATIONS THAN MOST DARE TO GIVE CREDIT. We are beginning to see banks buying more auto loans than in the past 3 years. As good loans continue to pay off the balances,banks once again realize that they are in the business of making loans. This pay down effect is happening for real estate every day. Most fail to realize that the feds "bloated balance sheet is being payed off every day. Holding RMBS till maturity is an exit strategy all by itself. There is a group of players out there that would love to buy on the cheap these products and make a killing. They are the loud mouths of the bunch. When the fed has data on the payout rate - they well couold sell the junk and make a toon of money? That would surely turn viewpoints and confidence wouldn't it? Bob

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