|
After giving the damn Barrons thing a very cursory reading my feeling was o no! Then I read the thing over with my wife who is an attorney and accountant for IBM and began to feel mighty good about SAP. The first thing she asked was do corporations really upgrade to SAP just for the write-off possibilities? At IBM the answer was a resounding NO! They do it for the long term future and that means looking out for the next guy who is also becoming more productive competitive in a cut-throat world. The smart companies with money will continue their erp plans and deal with the y2k problem as well! The next thing Chip Morris noted was the shortage of people to implement erp due to the y2k problem. Maybe, but right now there is probably an influx of mba's looking to make a fortune in this business...supply and demand scenario. These money managers then went on to say that the long term still is good for these companies once y2k is over; and their only criticism was the high PE. There could be a significant correction, 30% or so, but then the news gets good again, look at INTC these days, and I'm not selling, no way! Last but not least, the Barrons money managers had their own agenda with the y2k problem, wanting more money to go to Intelligroup, a sap implementor, and other associated stocks. Interesting! Chip Morris may have some merit to his case, but his model is imho based on some shaky assumptions about why companies use sap, and about how overpowering the y2k problem will be. If any of the quality erp stock go down simply due to y2k, all I can say is BUY! |
