: The stock market goes up and down that's usually the case. It may go up 40% in a week, but believe it always comes back up and better. Until I see the USA interest rate going up dramatically from here I wouldn't be that alarmed.
You meant down 40%? That is one aspect of thinking. If you back to the '73-'74 bear market it errode +30% over a long period of time. There wasn't a significant down day. Just everyday. Yes it recovered some, but took years to regain that level. Look at Japan now, here was the darlings just a few years ago, yet it is taking a longtime to regain their high levels.
There is no simply formula or magic formula to investing. You have to weigh and judge events singularly and in combination to each other. To say Asia isn't something to worry about, it is to be closely watched to see how this event unfolds. The stock crash of '29 didn't start the depression, it was stupid government policy on banking and trade in the early 30's that erased all gains after the crash, which BTW recovered to nearly the level of the crash.
I don't adovacate that we are in some dire trouble, although I think some stocks are very overvalued. Interest rates could very well be on the rise. You'll not get a wake up one morning and the market will say we are now in the first day of a recession. Hell, the last one we were in was over before it was realized we were in it. 4.7% unemployemnt is a problem somewhat that needs to be looked at with a wary eye. Also the effects of a global market meltdown will affect earnings of alot of companies that have done well so far, because of the rest of the worlds growth. Our economy is depended on the rest of the worlds growth.
Like I said before, I do use option as insurance and a hedge, I do play the OEX and will do so into the future. Yes, it has made me money in the past few weeks.
Will it in the future? Did I time it perfectly? Hardly. Did I go hog wild and bet the ranch, absolutely not! Shoot, I bot DELL puts and left alot of money on the table, made some too. I have life insurance, but I don't know when I'll die? |
