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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Spekulatius who wrote (38962)	8/25/2010 2:50:38 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) of 78468

"TOT for example trades at about <12$/ BOE proved reserve value (about 1/2 that if you include unproved ones) and their reserves are pretty oily." Not sure I have latest numbers for TOT. Feb '10 report of '09 results shows they have about 10.5B boe proved reserves. Per share, that's 10.5/2.23 = 4.7 boe/sh, which if using 60/40 oil/gas (I'm not sure that's the right split though.)is: .4 x 4.7 x 6 x $1.5 = $16.92 .6 x 4.7 x $15 = $42.30 Which would value [t]TOT[/t] (<span style='font-size:11px'>LAST</span>: 46.889<span style='font-size:11px'> 8/25/2010 2:36:16 PM</span>) at 16.92+42.30 = $59/sh, using your value price numbers. Not bad. I'd add in probable reserves, discount some amount because some of that oil is in "unstable" countries, add points because the company pays a nice dividend. All-in-all, not a bad buy for a conservative investor looking for a large cap multinational oil company. (And I do have shares) So yes, agree GEOI not so good on this comparison of proven reserves with TOT's. I still like GEOI's possibilities better.

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