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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (38966)	8/25/2010 7:40:44 PM
From: Spekulatius	1 Recommendation Read Replies (2) of 78469

re TOT Not sure I have latest numbers for TOT. Feb '10 report of '09 results shows they have about 10.5B boe proved reserves. Per share, that's 10.5/2.23 = 4.7 boe/sh, which if using 60/40 oil/gas (I'm not sure that's the right split though.)is: .4 x 4.7 x 6 x $1.5 = $16.92 .6 x 4.7 x $15 = $42.30 Add 13B$ in net debt to the balance sheet but subtract ~9B$ in equity value (Sanofi, others) plus the value of refinery and chemical business (20B$ in revenues for the latter, probably worth ~10B$). I think the downstream operation is ~20-25% of TOT value. Also keep in mind that TOT even in the upstream sector owns many hard assets other than just the reserves, tanks, pipelines, LNG facilities, production rigs etc. while many juniors own virtually nothing since they use rented rigs. Of course it's easier for GEOI to move the needle - they added 20% to their reserve base last year - this is much harder to do for TOT of course. But know we are talking about growth potential, not value of assets.

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