QUANTUM Message Board - Msg: 2678122

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Technology Stocks : QUANTUM

QNTM 8.300

-4.5%

Dec 26 9:30 AM EST

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To: jim shiau who wrote (4612)	11/9/1997 12:19:00 PM
From: Dale J.	Read Replies (1) of 9124

RE: <<We may need to bite the bullet and cut the loss sometimes>> Jim, I appreciate your comments, the problem is you don't know if you are cutting losses or it's the classic sell at the bottom. I agree that there is intense pricing pressure and the dd industry appears to be in terrible shape. However when considering to sell qntm you have to look at qntm specifically. Qntm's profit is composed of approx. 45% DLT and 55% DD. The DLT is growing steadily at 100%. Qntm has asserted this for several qtrs now and the DLT growth has been confirmed in each qtr's results. Mike Brown continues to assert that DLT will grow at 100% for the year. His assessment of qntm's recovery has been extremely reliable. Last Spring he said the 3rd Qtr would be sequentially flat (it was), but the 4th Qtr would be strong. If 45% of your profits (DLT) are growing at 100% and 55% (Disk Drives) shows no growth in profits due to competitive pressure. That would still yield you an overall growth rate of 31% growth for the company. The current PE is just over 11, but this is based on a recovery year. In other words it is not going to be difficult for qntm to beat the results in each of the last 4 qtrs. Qntm beat estimates in the last qtr even though SEG made only 8 cents/shr vs 37cents/shr estimates and WDC also failed to meet estimates last qtr. Competing in a tough environment is not new to qntm. And we haven't even got to NFR products. You can't dismiss the terastor venture as insignificant. At DiskCon, NFR was called a "revolutionary technology" by industry leaders. It was also voted the most significant new technology of the year. This is a Qntm/Terastor exclusive and I think it is going to make a significant contribution to earnings for this year and beyond. I of course am only expressing my opinion and why I am going to continue to hold my shares. Dale

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