Qdog, OK you want to do it gradually FINE. Let me start by asking you a few questions? Where was the DOW during the 73-74 lows? Where is the DOW 5 years later? And where is the DOW now? I think the point that I'm trying to make is, why worry about doom and gloom so much, we all know that everytime the market goes down it comes back up and more over time. I could see somebody being scared if you are a day\week\month trader. With good companies, I find it very difficult to lose, especially if you have a long term plan. Sun Microsystems you mentioned to be currently undergoing a correction, agree, but don't you know that the stock have been growing above 15% a year even when times are bad. Let's see the FIRST CALL ESTIMATES $2.26 June-FY97 and $2.70 June-FY98, not bad for a growth stock. Look at Wallmart, Wrigleys, Philipp Morris can you imagine that I have DRIPS on those stocks that I started many years ago now. As a long term investor, I don't really care if they go down 5 consecutive days or even 5 consecutive months, but what's important to me is the confidence in the company and my return on investments on those stocks over time.
On unrelated story, 7 years ago now, my friend had advised me not to buy a bigger house because the real estate market is collapsing. But, I did anyhow. Now let's see who is right. We had the house appraised few months back for tax purposes because we've noticed that the county tax we pay was increasing. In seven years the house had appreciated 30%. Would I be angry on that or would I be mad? Of course not. It only means to say that for sticking to my plan to buy the house, we are now 30% richer, we have bigger tax break, we have bigger space for the family, we have a much better neigborhood, etc, etc. Now what do you think happen to my friend---he bought a new and a much bigger house a few miles from mine. I should stop here, you know the rest of the story don't you.
In any case I'm sorry to disappoint you QDOG, but I don't bet the ranch on one stock. But, seeing the potential on AIPN from 28Cents to 5 dollars today based on 1 billion barrels of potential oil find, I would admit that I have bet my family room on it. Why because I believe in Peter Lynch style of investing. THAT when you find a double\triple\quadruple bagger you have to stick with it and enjoy the ride. You don't really need to track thousands of stocks to really win big in this game. ONE good company with a combination of good luck can be enough to make you rich.
I agree with you on DELL, it was way overvalued now especially when it was trading at over a hundred few weeks ago. Wish I know how to short a stock. But that was never my style. Meanwhile, just want to remind you that this stock is the same company that is dubbed the fastest growing company in the history of the United States. Though I would imagine that Netscape sooner or later can take the helm. What do I know about stocks anyway???
My humble opinion on OIL is, irrespective of what happen to the market or to the World Economy, OIL will continue to be in demand because of the swelling population. Demand may be lesser at times, but as the World economies pick up (they always does; it's an economic cyle) the excitement of finding more oil due to scarcity of supply will remain a BIG CHALLENGE FOR YEARS AND YEARS TO COME. sycamore
up goes down and vice versa. At least long term investors shouldn't IMHO.
You talk as if the World is ending soon. You'll probably be surprised to know that I have insurance too. Life Insurance, Home Insurance, Car Insurance, Health Insurance, oh you better believe it everybody must have them. It's complete suicide not to have them. |
