Bargainman, the hype crowd are those who post that they possess insider information such as:
"I can't tell anyone, but I have info that..."
There's been a ton of that crap on the thread. Those individuals are frauds. They scream that anyone who is negative is a short. Our friend Sycamore has done this very thing of late. Hypsters cannot debate the merits of the stock and therefore are limited to attacks on the individual they disagree with.
I do not have any problem with highly optimistic projections by anyone. I'll present my opinion if I disagree, but it's only an opinion. There's a real problem with the hypes: Too in love with the stock and refuse, reject, characterize these opinions by making transparent attempts to denegrate the person.
I've bookmarked those posts where such claims of being in the know are made--I re-read them and laugh from time to time.
AIPN:
Here are my price targets depending on the situation:
1) No JV in next three months: Trading range 3 to 6.5. Any move below 3.5 I'll buy. Sell above 4.5.
2) Positive news about reserves from data: Stock will move above 10. I will not buy above 10 in this situation and would place a stop.
3) JV signed in 50 to 100 million range. Stock trades from 7 to 12. If only part of concession is involved I'd still accumulate even at 10.
4) Major JV signed I'll immediately sell majority of my shares. Price...anyone's guess. I don't see a large JV getting inked unless aipn can step up to the plate with some serious data on what's there. Strongest bargaining chip is successful wells.
In all four situations, the stock is going to be extremely volatile and there will be numerous opportunities to buy more shares. I have a long term position as a hedge in case a large deal is suddenly struck. I'm comfortable enough with the stocks support at present to maintain this posture. I will, however, trade at anytime and this Monday I expect to do exactly that.
I'm confident that within one year this stock will see double digits. I'm mildly confident it may happen as quickly as 3 to 5 mos. If it does happen sooner I have a core position which allows me in on the jump. There are no questionable motives here; I'm not contradicting myself or being "all over the place." I've thought out my strategy and am sticking with it. I trade for only one reason...cash! All my efforts are directed that way and I never buy anything on a whim.
I trade out of personal online accounts, and take core positions with my profit sharing accounts. Investing this way has been highly successful for me. I've increased my profits on thqi, fore, octl (in a big way), ctxs (although I did miss the move from 30s to 70), phss, and just this week with aura--a stock that might acutally begin to meet some expectations concerning its technology. Bargainman, if your ever in Southern NJ email me and I'll take you on a tour of my lab and we'll drop by the house. The results of my investments speak for themselves.
Go to the octl thread starting early Nov 96'. I was a frequent poster and extremely positive on the co following the big Oct drop from 30 to 13.5. I posted that the stock would see mid 20s in six mos based on my analysis of the info. Well, I was wrong, it hit 33.
Octl is another example of a co I took a core position in but also traded. Options were terrible though and I stayed away.
I cannot again tell you enough how well this type of investment strategy has worked for me. It may work with aipn.
Greg |
