Roger's 1997 Short Picks Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks

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To: Tom Markowski who wrote (6678)	11/9/1997 2:09:00 PM
From: Roger A. Babb	Read Replies (2) of 9285

Tom, although I disagree with the long case for CTXS, thanks for a good post in support of CTXS. Although I am short, I do recognize that there are two sides to the debate on this one. CTXS Winframe will have to successfully compete with MSFT Hydra to support the current valuation and I don't think it will have any better luck than Stacker did in the same situation. You are betting that CTXS will beat MSFT in the marketplace. A big win if it happens, but unlikely in my opinion. As for earnings, they DID go in the tank this past quarter, deduct the almost $10 million in MSFT "revenue recognition" from the $13 million and only $3 million are left for "on-going" business, a large decline from last quarter and not enough to support a $2 billion market cap. Even using the "revenue recognition" gimmick, growth can not continue without additional income from sales outside the MSFT deal. Note that cash assets are now in a down trend, there is a "burn rate" on the MSFT windfall.

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